Linking Climate Change, Tourist DestinationAdaptation and Tourist Attitudes:A Case Study of the Victorian Surf Coast RegionRYAN JOPPThesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirementsfor the degree of Doctor of PhilosophyCentre for Tourism and Services ResearchVictoria UniversityMelbourne, AustraliaFebruary 2012

DeclarationI, Ryan Jopp, declare that the PhD thesis entitled Linking Climate Change, TouristDestination Adaptation and Tourist Attitudes: A Case Study of the Victorian Surf CoastRegion is no more than 100,000 words in length including quotes and exclusive oftables, figures, appendices, bibliography, references and footnotes. This thesis containsno material that has been submitted previously, in whole or in part, for the award of anyother academic degree or diploma. Except where otherwise indicated, this thesis is myown work.SignatureDatei

AcknowledgementsMy PhD journey has been both challenging and rewarding. I have grown significantlyover this period, both professionally and personally. However, this project would nothave been possible without the support of my family, friends and colleagues.First and foremost, I would like to thank my supervisors. To my principle supervisor,Professor Terry DeLacy, thank-you for your ongoing support throughout this project,your constructive advice and links to industry were essential to the success of thisproject. To my associate supervisor, Dr Judith Mair, thank-you for being so generouswith your time and for responding to my countless questions, I am eternally grateful. Tomy associate supervisor, Dr Martin Fluker, I would like to extent my gratitude for bothyour ongoing support during the PhD process and your friendship throughout our timeteaching together.Special thanks also to all members of the Centre of Tourism and Services Research, inparticular thanks to my colleagues in the adjoining room, Dr Colin Drake, Dr TulsiBisht and Louise Klint. It was great to always have someone to bounce ideas off!I would also like to thank all the people involved in the field research for this project,including Tulsi once more, and my beautiful fiancé Bree. Further thanks to Paul Beamesand his staff at Wildlife Tours Australia and the friendly staff of the Lorne and TorquayVisitor Information Centres. Finally, I am grateful to all the members of the Delphistudy, you know who you are.Last, but certainly not least, I would like to give a big thank-you to my fiancé Bree, andmy parents Keith and Wendy. Without your love and support I would not have made itto this point.ii

AbstractThe global tourism industry is particularly vulnerable to climate change due to its stronglink to climate and natural ecosystems. Impacts such as warmer temperatures,increasingly frequent and intense storms, and sea level rise present a range ofimplications for tourism destinations from altered seasonality and increased risk of fire,to loss of beaches and erosion of coastal areas. Both destination infrastructure andecosystems will be impacted and the ability to adapt to these impacts will ultimatelyinfluence destination’s long-term sustainability. A review of tourism sector adaptationframeworks found that none of the existing models focused on regional tourismdestinations. This was deemed important as adaptation is best applied at the local level.The role of the tourist was also largely neglected, which was of some surprise given thattourism is a consumer driven industry, and it is the tourist who has the greatest adaptivecapacity in terms of choosing when and where they go on holiday and the activities theyengage in whilst they are there. Finally, the existing models tended to take a risk scienceapproach and therefore did not fully consider the opportunities made possible byclimate change.This thesis proposes a regional tourism adaptation framework (RTAF) model. The aimof the model is to provide a holistic representation of the steps involved in assessing adestination’s vulnerability and resilience, and developing an appropriate adaptationaction plan. The RTAF model was applied to Victoria’s Surf Coast region as a singlecase study and a number of climate change impacts and adaptation options wereidentified. The study incorporated three research phases: a model development stage, aDelphi study and a tourist survey.The Delphi study involved two rounds of communication with experts on climatechange, destination management and the Surf Coast region. Panel members were askedto identify the major climate change risks and opportunities for the Surf Coast region, aswell as appropriate adaptation options. The adaptation options identified included thefurther development of early warning systems for extreme events, the construction ofsea walls and the need for greater awareness and education throughout the tourismsystem. Potential opportunities identified included the ability to capitalise on theemergence of the so called “green” consumer and the potential to decrease seasonalityand extend the peak summer season as regional temperatures increase.iii

The Delphi study proved a valuable means of identifying and prioritising potentialadaptation options. These options were then tested with consumers by administeringtourist surveys throughout the Surf Coast region. The aim being to determine differentmarket segments’ perceptions of the adaptation options identified in the Delphi study.Participants were asked to rate various adaptation options across a range of criteria.Also, in order to allow further statistical analysis information on participants‘environmental worldview’ was collected using the New Ecological Paradigm (NEP).Overall, the sample responded positively towards the adaptation option to develop earlywarning systems for extreme events. These events could be fires, floods, or severestorms, or indeed any other form of man-made or natural disaster. Data analysis alsoshowed that prior visitation, age, education, nationality and NEP score all played a rolein determining respondent’s opinions of the different adaptation options presented.The case study analysis demonstrated that the RTAF model can play a role inidentifying effective climate change adaptation strategies for regional tourismdestinations. It gives all stakeholders greater insight into how a range of differentclimate change impacts are likely to impact on tourism at a regional destination level. Indoing so it enables the identification of both potentially positive and negative climatechange impacts and allows destination managers and policy-makers to make appropriatedecisions regarding adaptation to both minimise potentially negative impacts andcapitalise on potential opportunities.iv

Publications Associated with this ThesisRefereed Journal articles:Jopp, R., De Lacy, T and Mair, J (2010) ‘Developing a Framework for RegionalDestination Adaptation to Climate Change’ Current Issues in Tourism 13(6) pp 591-605Jopp, R., Mair, J., DeLacy, T., & Fluker, M. (2012). ‘Using a Regional TourismAdaptation Framework to Determine Climate Change Adaptation Options for Victoria'sSurf Coast’ Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research (iFirst).Conference Papers:Jopp, R., DeLacy, T, Fluker, M & Mair, J (2011) “Towards an understanding of touristresponses to destination adaptation to climate change” Refereed working paperpresented at CAUTHE February 2011 Adelaide, Australia.Jopp, R., De Lacy, T. and Mair, J. (2010) “Using the Delphi approach to determineclimate change adaptation strategies for Victoria’s Surf Coast” Refereed working paperpresented at CAUTHE February 2010 Hobart, Australia.Calgaro, E., DeLacy, T., Jiang, M., & Jopp, R. (2010) “Moving beyond impacts:Placing adaptation and resilience at the forefront of tourism development strategies”Paper presented at the Climate Change Adaptation Futures Conference, NCCARF 2010,Gold Coast, Australia.v

ContentsDeclaration. iAcknowledgements . iiPublications Associated with this Thesis. vContents . viList of Tables . xList of Figures . xiList of Acronyms . xiiiChapter 1. Introduction . 11.1 Introduction . 11.2 Background to the Research . 11.2.1 Climate Change . 21.2.2 Tourism. 31.2.3 The Tourist . 41.2.4 The Tourism System. 51.2.5 Tourism Destinations. 71.3 Review of Research Aims and Objectives . 81.4 Justification of the Topic . 101.5 Overview of Methodology. 121.6 Structure of the Dissertation . 15Chapter 2. Climate Change and Tourism Destination Adaptation . 172.1 Climate Change: A Global Challenge . 172.2 The Relationship between Climate Change and Sustainable Tourism . 182.2.1 Impacts of Climate Change on Different Geographic Regions . 212.2.2 Climate Change and Australian Tourism . 242.2.3 Climate Change Sceptics . 242.3 Mitigation and Adaptation . 262.4 Sectoral Adaptation . 272.5 Vulnerability and Resilience . 312.6 Vulnerability and Resilience in Tourism . 332.6.1 The Relationship between Human and Natural Environments . 342.7 Adaptation in Tourism . 362.8 Types of Adaptation in Tourism . 382.8.1 Adaptive Capacity in Tourism. 402.9 Analysis of Tourism Adaptation Frameworks Available . 422.10 Chapter Summary . 45Chapter 3. The Tourist Perspective . 473.1 Introduction . 473.2 Consumer Behaviour . 483.3 The Study of Consumer Behaviour . 483.4 What are the Major Aspects of Individual Consumer Behaviour? . 503.5 Attitudes. 523.6 How Consumers Make Decisions. 543.7 Heuristics . 553.8 Modelling Consumer Behaviour . 563.9 Consumer Behaviour in Tourism . 59vi

3.10 Models of Consumer Behaviour in Tourism . 613.10.1 The “Grand Models” of Consumer Behaviour in Tourism . 613.11 Models of Destination Choice . 633.11.1 Woodside and Lysonski 1989 . 633.11.2 Um and Crompton 1990 . 653.11.3 Moscardo et al. 1996 . 663.12 Role of Attitudes in Destination Choice . 683.13 Environmental Attitudes, Climate Change and Tourism. 703.13.1 The New Ecological Paradigm (NEP) . 713.13.2 Use of the